Like you, I expected the Cats to beat Oregon. I expected us to dominate time of possession and control field position. I expected Klein to eventually take over. I expected we'd be able to contain their speed.
I of course wanted, and expected, more. As we all did.
Unfortunately, a grim reality sank in when thinking about the little Wildcats: when someone (and I mean a good coach with quality athletes and team speed), has a month to prepare for KSU, the Cats lose a major competitive advantage they carry throughout the year -- the element of preparedness.
One of Snyder's greatest strengths is his ability to prepare. He has always gotten his teams (and assistant coaches) to out scheme, out adjust, and in some ways, out will -- our opposition. However, as our bowl competition has steadily risen in Snyder's career, as we've faced teams with faster team speed and better athletes on their offensive and defensive lines, and with teams having had several weeks to break down the KSU offense and find weakness in our defense, we have not had a tremendous amount of bowl success.
Now, certainly, game by game, you can find reasons (excuses) for the losses (see below).
One little thing that I don't think helped much in the Fiesta Bowl for example? Scott Frost (now coaching for the Ducks) both played against, AND coached at, KSU under Snyder and said in an interview before the game, he said he had lots of insights on our offense. Never good ... similar to what Phil Bennett was able to do to the KSU offense in Waco.
Of course, I'm not suggesting because those two guys had both coached at KSU that was why we lost. We had plenty of chances in the Fiesta Bowl. In fact, the game came down really to two critical moments:
1) The opening kickoff return for a TD.
2) Right after we stuff their 4th down fake punt at the end of the 2nd quarter, we false start and then proceed to get a FG blocked. They of course go down and score right before half.
In hindsight, Snyder should have probably tried to go for that 4th down, as going into the half up 17-15 (or even just being down 15-10) is clearly better than being down 22-10.
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Snyder is a mere 6-8 in 14 bowl appearances dating back to 1993 (.430).Here's a breakdown of those games:
Oregon was far better and had better athletes and we made too many mistakes.
- (LOSS) Jan. 3, 2013 Fiesta Bowl -- Oregon 35, Kansas State 17
Arkansas defense was incredible and QB/RB combo were very very good. Terrible first half was too much to overcome.
- (LOSS) Jan. 6, 2012 Cotton Bowl -- Arkansas 29, Kansas St. 16
Syracuse probably not better but we had Coffman at QB and he was playing with Ron Prince's team. Screwed on "The Salute."
- (LOSS) Dec. 30, 2010 Pinstripe Bowl -- Syracuse 36, Kansas St. 34
- (LOSS) Dec. 28, 2006 Texas Bowl_Rutgers 37, Kansas St. 10
Ray Rice kills Ron Prince and we fall down a lot on a wet field that was left outside in the rain. (This is not considered in Snyder's record above.)
- (LOSS) Jan. 2, 2004 Fiesta Bowl -- Ohio St. 35, Kansas St. 28
Was OSU better? Maybe. Having Roberson Controversy was a deal killer.
This was Snyder's last win. KSU had a far superior team and still only won by a TD.
- (WIN) Dec. 27, 2002 Holiday Bowl -- Kansas St. 34, Arizona St. 27
- (LOSS) Dec. 29, 2001 Insight.com Bowl -- Syracuse 26, Kansas St. 3
No words for this one. Our 2001 team was a major major disappointment.
The last time Snyder-lead team kicked a good team's butt in a bowl game.
- (WIN) Jan. 1, 2001 Cotton Bowl -- Kansas St. 35, Tennessee 21
Score should have never been this close but it was still a win.
- (WIN) Dec. 29, 1999 Holiday Bowl -- Kansas St. 24, Washington 20
- (LOSS) Dec. 29, 1998 Alamo Bowl -- Purdue 37, Kansas St. 34
Should not have lost this game but it was a loss to Brees. Lots and lots of BigXII Championship hangover.
- (WIN) Dec. 31, 1997 Fiesta Bowl -- Kansas St. 35, Syracuse 18
Bishop/McDonald dominate McNabb.
This game sucked at every level. Should have had the win.
- (LOSS) Jan. 1, 1996 Cotton Bowl -- Brigham Young 19, Kansas St. 15
- (WIN) Dec. 29, 1995 Holiday Bowl -- Kansas St. 54, Colorado St. 21
Domination over an over matched team.
- (LOSS) Dec. 25, 1994 Aloha Bowl -- Boston College 12, Kansas St. 7
Team partied heavily the night before, May's arrogance lost team and OL gave up and let BC kick the crap out of him.
- (WIN) Dec. 29, 1993 Copper Bowl -- Kansas St. 52, Wyoming 17
Domination over an over matched team.
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But, bowl wins (and losses) are not indications of a good football team, or even a healthy football program. In fact, in some ways, since bowl games bring with them such a unique set of circumstances, it's hard to know what you're going to get with any particular game.
As much as I want to find the blame for the Oregon loss on our coaching, our scheme, our style, whatever, ultimately it might just be ... we are playing teams that are better than we are -- and with a month to prepare, they find ways to take advantage. It might be just that simple.
Take this example (for example):
10-2 (#6 AP), 11-2 (#10 AP), 10-2 (#11 AP), 9-3 (#24 AP), 9-2-1 (#15 AP), 9-3 (#14 AP) and 11-1 (#3 AP)
That team lost their bowl game ... every year, seven years in a row.
You can't really look at bowl wins and losses as an indicator of ... anything.
Take this example (for example):
10-2 (#6 AP), 11-2 (#10 AP), 10-2 (#11 AP), 9-3 (#24 AP), 9-2-1 (#15 AP), 9-3 (#14 AP) and 11-1 (#3 AP)
That team lost their bowl game ... every year, seven years in a row.
That was Tom Osborne's record at Nebraska from 1987-1993. (NU obviously went on to win 3 out of the next 4 National Titles, sooo maybe not quite apples to apples, but you get the point: bowl wins are fairly meaningless to the overall success of any particular coach.)
Let's look at two other of Snyder's contemporaries and their bowl records -- Phil Fulmer and Frank Beamer ... both respected coaches with long tenures at the same school, all fielding top 25 teams during that period.
Time to move on to the 2013 Spring Game.
With Snyder's future beyond the next 2 years in serious doubt, I can't blame Smith for making this move, now matter how disappointing it appears to you and I.
Same story for Clements heading to OSU? Well, this one hurts a little more because it's in the same conference, with recruiting battles occurring directly against KSU.
See anyone other than McGruder in the Top 25 in scoring? No? Kansas has three. Baylor? Three. OSU and ISU? An unbelievable ... four each.
Let's look at two other of Snyder's contemporaries and their bowl records -- Phil Fulmer and Frank Beamer ... both respected coaches with long tenures at the same school, all fielding top 25 teams during that period.
- Beamer has played in 20 bowls since starting at VT in 1991. They started their bowl run in 1993. He's 9-11 (.450).
- Fulmer has played in 15 bowls since starting at Tennessee in 1992. They started their bowl run in 1992. He's 8-7 (.533)
Great coaches. Lots of success. Lackluster bowl records. Happens to the best of them. (Except somehow Mack Brown, who has only lost 4 bowl games in 14 attempts. Crazy.)
Time to move on to the 2013 Spring Game.
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Ah, we can't just yet.
So this was/is disappointing.
It's disappointing in that it's lateral move away from his alma mater. It's disappointing in that he can definitely recruit. It's disappointing that he appeared to have a great relationship with Snyder who brought him back to his staff after Smith left to coach RB's at Rice and then at AZ.
And yet, as I was so engrossed in KSU in early December, I didn't really even follow the news that Bielema had left Wisconsin and was hired to Arkansas on Dec. 4th.
So, now this connection makes a whole lot more sense as I dug into this a little further:
"During my two seasons at Kansas State, I learned that Michael Smith is one of the masters of the fundamentals of the game," Coach Bielema said.
"As a player, he was part of building the foundation at Kansas State and as a coach he played an instrumental part in one of the greatest turnarounds for a program in the history of college football. He has a proven track record of leading his student-athletes to reach their full potential. He is also a tremendous recruiter who has very strong ties in his hometown of New Orleans.
When I came to Arkansas, I said I wanted to assemble a staff second to none. The administration has shown tremendous support of that goal and Michael Smith completes the group in exciting fashion. Our staff is made up of individuals who have earned respect within the profession and should generate excitement for our program."One of the youngest coaches in the game pulling together some other younger assistants in the recruiting rich hot bed of the SEC, near his hometown of New Orleans, LA? Yes. You can start piecing this all together now.
With Snyder's future beyond the next 2 years in serious doubt, I can't blame Smith for making this move, now matter how disappointing it appears to you and I.
Same story for Clements heading to OSU? Well, this one hurts a little more because it's in the same conference, with recruiting battles occurring directly against KSU.
Clements has had considerable success coaching the defensive line for the Wildcats, including Meshak Williams this past season. Clements is also a very good recruiter that has specialized in Texas, the Midlands including Oklahoma, and the junior college ranks for the Wildcats.
This is an excellent hire for Oklahoma State that on the field will give them a young and fiery defensive line coach that has a very solid football background that compliments what Oklahoma State will be doing under new defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer.
It also solidifies recruiting in this region and helps in Texas as Clements has been one of the top recruiters for Kansas State under Snyder. During Snyder's time away from Kansas State, Clements expanded his coaching resume geographically going to San Diego State and he also served as an assistant at Kansas.So they both had to do what was best for their careers and their families, something we can all understand. I'm just hopeful this is not the smoke before the inevitable fire coming in 2 to 3 years.
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There's a big basketball game tomorrow.
I won't pretend to have the same obsession for KSU Basketball as I do for KSU Football, but I will dedicate some posts to it this season. The more wins we compile, the more posts you can expect to see.
An eight game win streak with 2 true BigXII road wins? Mighty impressive. Wins over now #8 Florida and our only losses to #2 Michigan and #10 Gonzaga? Even better.
So tomorrow pits #11 KSU vs. #3 Kansas -- it would appear this game has the potential to be as big of a game as we'll have all season. Maybe THE biggest of the year if we want this one to be truly special in Bruce Weber's first year as a head coach.
Let's post this while we can:
So yes, expect a much bigger breakdown and post season celebration after a Tuesday night win in Manhattan.
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One last item -- You want team balance? Well, DO you?
Check this chart out:
Pretty amazing a team with only one player in the Top 25 in the league is sitting in first place with a 4-0 record. He does lead the league in made FG however while shooting considerably less FT's a game than his competition.
Let's hope he and the rest of the team are in for a groundbreaking win tomorrow night.
Go Cats.
