A week from now, the 42nd Annual Tostitos Fiesta Bowl will have just crowned a champion.
KSU will have either pulled the epic upset, or the Ducks will have done what everyone has expected them to do: blister the Cats without breaking a sweat.
The 2013 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, scheduled for University of Phoenix Stadium on January 3, is the only BCS bowl pitting two of the nation’s top 10 offenses.
Combining to average 91.5 points (50.8 Oregon, 40.7 Kansas State) and 960.5 yards (550.1 Ducks, 410.4 Wildcats) per game, this could be the year the two-team Tostitos Fiesta Bowl single-game records for points (86 in 1996) and total yardage (1129 in 1972) is threatened
Both schools arrive in the desert on the heels of national title-contending seasons. The Ducks ranked in the top four slots of the BCS every week, climbing as high as no. 2 in early November, the same week the Big 12 Conference champion Wildcats reached no. 1.
In the final BCS rankings, the Ducks and Wildcats finished fourth and fifth, respectively.
Oregon used merciless offensive precision to score 40 or more points in 11 of 12 games.
In 80 scoring drives, 44 lasted less than two minutes and 22 were 60 seconds or less. The Ducks extended their school-record winning streak to 13 games by prevailing in the first 10 outings of the season. Besides scoring and total offense, the Ducks also led the Pac-12 Conference in pass efficiency (159.8), punt-return average (14.2), passes intercepted (24), third-down conversions (47.3 pct.), fourth-down conversions (70.4 pct.) and turnover margin (+19). In fact, Oregon was the national leader in passes intercepted and tied for the lead in total turnovers (38).
Kansas State enjoyed its highest final BCS ranking in school history and reached no. 1 in the BCS for the first time. K-State ranked 10th nationally in scoring offense while also leading the country in turnover margin (+21).
The Wildcats’ defense held seven opponents (Missouri State, Miami, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas) to less than 100 yards rushing, finishing 16th nationally in rushing defense (119.2 yards per game).
Quarterback Collin Klein, a leading Heisman Trophy candidate, became the first signal-caller from a BCS automatic-qualifying school in the BCS era to record 20 rushing touchdowns and 10 passing touchdown in two seasons and he is one of only four quarterbacks to accomplish the feat.
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It appears the Cats hold a clear advantage in Kickoff Returns. In fact, one could say that Kansas State is the nation's best at KR's, and Oregon is statistically ... the very worst. And that should sound like a VERY clear advantage.
The only problem? The difference is only 12 yards: KSU's leading 29.23 yards per return to Oregon's 17.26.
The Cats also hold slight statistical advantages in Rushing Defense, Net Punting, Sacks Allowed, and Total Sacks. Obviously the two teams play in widely different conferences, so comparing these stats in an apples to apples format without factoring in the strength of the opponents is probably a bit misleading.
However, it's interesting to note defensively these two are almost dead even (except for Pass Defense), and while Scoring Offense looks comparable nationally, the difference is dramatic: ORE averaged 50.83 points per game ... KSU drops to 40.67. Ten point differential in scoring ... with only 8 other teams between them in that range.
Both teams average out in all categories to around a national ranking of approx. 33rd in all statistics, so a pretty even matchup ... on paper.
Both teams average out in all categories to around a national ranking of approx. 33rd in all statistics, so a pretty even matchup ... on paper.
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Did you know there was a Fiesta Bowl Queen? No? NO?
Well, now you do.
I've posted this to add to your "Fiesta Bowl Experience."
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The Bleacher Report isn't the most in-depth reporting around.
It's the fast food of sports coverage.
There's a lot of it, it always sounds like a good idea in the beginning, and it's popular because everyone reads it. Unfortunately, its quantity over quality, about 3 minutes in you realize what a mistake you've made reading (eating) it, and anything that's popular isn't necessarily, you know, good for you.
But, be that as it may, I like a good fast food hamburger and fries now and then, and thus, I'll link you the Bleacher Report Breakdown and Prediction of the game (slideshow).
Not unexpectedly, they predict Oregon in blowout (should of just ordered a salad, maybe).
They also gave me a reason to post this pic (you're welcome).
Kansas State Will Win IF ...
...the Ducks can't put any pressure on Collin Klein. K-State's quarterback is capable of winning this game almost by himself.
Oregon has faced some excellent QBs this season, but most have been one-dimensional. There was almost no chance, for example, that USC's Matt Barkley was going to take off running. Klein is a different animal, and it's essential that the Ducks get up in his face regularly.
The other wild card that might factor in the Wildcats winning this game is if Oregon head coach Chip Kelly should announce in December that he is leaving for the NFL.
While Duck fans and players understand that Kelly is the single hottest NFL prospect, the reality of his departure might result in the Ducks coming out flat.
Prediction:
The Ducks have too many weapons and too much to prove for Kansas State to win this game.
Oregon is one missed field goal away from being in the BCS National Championship Game. K-State's lone slip-up against Baylor was also traumatic, but the solid pounding (24-52) it took was in some ways easier to digest than Oregon's very close call against Stanford.
Both these teams and their fans are asking why a one-loss Alabama team is better and will be out to prove that they should have been in the big one. The Fiesta Bowl will be the most entertaining game of the bowl season.
OREGON 49 — KANSAS STATE 28
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I believe KSU has what, two combinations? Home aaaand ... away?
Under coach Bill Snyder, the Wildcats have worn the same uniforms — silver pants, silver helmet featuring purple and white stripes, and solid white or purple jerseys — without any major modifications since he redesigned them in 1989.
He wanted a look that resembled the Dallas Cowboys, and still does.
"I'll tell you what, Brad, those Wildcats sure look good in that deep purple."
"You know, Todd, I agree. The traditional look is such a classic look for them. It's certainly served them well over the years."
:: laugh::
"Yes it has. Legend has it, Bill Snyder actually developed that hue of color himself. Right there on campus ... in one of the old chem labs, he spent several days working to develop that hue to just the right color. It's stuck ever since."
"And they've been WINNING ever since as well."
:: laughter ::
"Holly, what can you tell us about Oregon's newest uniform? They look shiny even from up here!"
"Well, Todd, you're right. I spoke with equipment managers from Oregon and they told me these special iridescent uniforms cost $1357 per jersey. The feathers are actually made out of small sheets of titanium, honed for hundreds of hours until they give off this reflective, almost magical hue. They are quite stunning and with the ever changing colors, it's almost like looking into a rainbow! "
"Well, let's hope there's a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow for the Ducks as we are set to kickoff. It's old school Cats vs the new school Ducks, coming at you ... now!"
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Nonetheless, he has a Kansas State blog so I read it from time to time. He's got a whole stream of posts over the course of the last few weeks leading up to the game you might like to read.
Since K-State football coach Bill Snyder re-joined the Wildcats four years ago, the Wildcats have been dominant against opponents that use birds as their mascots.
They are 4-0 (with three extremely lopsided victories) against the Kansas Jayhawks, they are 4-0 against the Iowa State Cyclones (their mascot is half bird, half tornado), they are 2-0 against the North Texas Mean Green (aka Eagles) and they have victories over Tennessee Tech and Kent State (both Golden Eagles). That’s a 12-0 record.
Throw in two more wins over the Miami Hurricanes (their mascot, Sebastian, is an American White Ibis) and the record improves to 14-0.
During the last four years, nobody has beaten up on bird mascots like Snyder. So I guess that means the Oregon Ducks need to be on high alert heading into the Fiesta Bowl.This post has a cool video discussing the stadium and the roll out field.
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Does it make anyone feel better Baylor crushed UCLA 49-26 in the Holiday Bowl?
Nah, me either.
But, it should make all of us BigXII fans feel globally better knowing many (44%) expected the Pac-12 to sweep the BigXII in our three contests this bowl season:
Let's hope the nation's most improved team the last half of the season (yes, I see you Aggie fans jumping up and down) winning over the Pac-12 is a good omen for the Cats for next week.
I'd post a photo of Baylor celebrating their win if I was over that loss yet but as it is, I've seen all the celebrating from Baylor I care to see for a while.
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With family coming to town tomorrow for five days it's unlikely I'll be able to fire off another one of these prior to the game.
I just wanted to wish everyone a very exciting and safe New Years and I am looking forward to picking this back up after the game on the 3rd. For all of you traveling to the game I hope you have a great time and I look forward to hearing the stories when you return.
The Cats are in for a dog fight, no doubt.
But, in the end, KSU's blue collar toughness will be be too much for the Ducks and the Cats superior offensive line will wear Oregon down by the end of the 3rd. Special Teams and a few timely turnovers (with hopefully a ball hawking Zimmerman back on the field leading the way for the Cats) will play major roles in the Cat storyline. Chris Harper will be dialed in for a monster game against his former team, and a fully rested Klein will limit the Oregon offense to fewer snaps, fewer possessions, and fewer points, allowing the Cats to secure a monumental bowl win and cap a 12-1 season record, cementing the best season in Kansas State history.
Thanks for a great 2012.
Let's get ready to roll in 2013.
