Monday, November 26, 2012

Margin of Error: Zero

It all could have ended on Saturday.

With an OSU win over OU in Bedlam, the Cats could have locked up their 2nd Big XII title and coasted into the UT game with little more to play for than a chance for Klein to pad his Heisman resume.  

But, that's not how it is for the Wildcats.  Things have never come easy.  They never will come easy.  KSU must fight, scratch, and claw for nearly everything it's ever gotten, and backing into a championship is not the way things are done in Manhattan.  And, as expected, not one other game went KSU's way over the course of the weekend, which for all practical purposes effectively knocked the Cats out of the national title race completely.

Now, like Klein's Heisman chances, there is no margin for error.  

There are no other roads to the Big XII Championship remaining save a last gasp effort by TCU to possibly knock off OU on Saturday in Fort Worth. With the way things have gone so far the 2nd half of the season, the odds of that happening are growing slimmer by the day.

We'll know their fate by kickoff -- and there's a very good chance by then our backs will officially be against the wall.  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Baylor proved anything, stats lie.  Lie. Lie. Lie.

We owned Baylor in nearly every stat possible.  So much so, it was an embarrassment of statistical riches. I was fairly convinced a cake walk was in order.  Well, if anything I owe them an apology. They are clearly better than I gave them credit for (even though I think we can all agree that game was a complete anomaly when held up against the 2-year resume of this group of players.)

So, to that end, let's look at the stats this week in light of playing the hated Longhorns.  

What stands out?  Well for one, how a team can be #1 in the conference in Tackles for Loss, but last in Rush Defense, makes absolutely no statistical sense.  If you have the ability to tackle behind the line of scrimmage, so much so that you're leading the conference, and yet have the league's worst Rush Defense says to me this is a team that's susceptible to some big plays in the running game.  

UT is also fantastic at Punting as they lead the conference.  But problems occur when they are returning the ball -- they rank #9 in Punt Returns.  Conversely, KSU leads the conference here.  Something has to give, and I'd expect the colder weather will play a big role in Special Teams, hopefully keeping the ball down and eliminate any advantage UT might have in pinning us too deep on punts, while also allowing our #1 Kickoff Return unit a chance to set up a few short fields.

One other statistical quick hit:  KSU has given up 82 less points this season, while scoring 39 more, than UT.  KSU has only given up 229 points this year.  Second place goes to TCU (253).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The only notable win here is @ OSU.  That was a really good win on the road in Stillwater.  

They played West Virginia close and lost, were completely crushed by Oklahoma, then went on to beat four of the weaker schools in the conference (yes, I'm putting Baylor in there. Dang it.)  Of course, winning at Tech is never easy, but how a team with that much talent can only muster 21 points against Kansas is just amazing.  

They did nothing offensively in a loss to TCU last weekend.  Again at home.  And for anyone who watched that game, it was pretty obvious TCU's defense is still really really good, and UT's QB's were again over matched by a team with a superior defense.  

This is a team that's 9 points from being 7-5 ... and 10 points away from being 10-1.  Not sure what to make of that.  In the end, a loss to KSU to end the season will only further underscore the obvious: it's been another down year (again) for Texas.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It appears Brown has decided McCoy will be the starter in Manhattan, due to a possible injury to Ash, although Mack won't deny or confirm.  
McCoy led Texas to its only touchdown against TCU before throwing the game-clinching interception in the final two minutes. The loss crushed Texas' hopes of grabbing a share of the Big 12 title and a possible BCS bowl bid. 
McCoy, a junior has had moments that dazzled and frustrated Texas fans.
His scramble against Texas A&M last season set up the game-winning field goal in the final meeting of that traditional rivalry. The next week at Baylor, McCoy had five turnovers in a Texas loss and he hasn't started a game since.
 
With Ash hurt, Texas also is preparing punter Alex King as the Longhorns' emergency quarterback. King, a senior who transferred this season from Duke, played quarterback in high school and played the position for the Blue Devils' scout team. 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thought this from KUT News was pretty funny.  They did call this UT's toughest game of the year, and then added this little tidbit about Mack's salary.
Last January University regents awarded Brown a 2020 extension to his contract —an extension that would add $23 million to his total contract value, include a $750 gift card to an Austin gun shop, and $60,000 to serve as the chairman of the University’s Golf Club. Altogether it made Brown the second highest paid head football coach in the nation.
Not a $75,000 gift card.  Not a $7,500 gift card.

A $750 gift card. (Added to the $23 million contract extension.)

Good to see the 2nd highest paid coach in the country is good for only 4th place in his own conference.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mad about the current turn of events for the Cats?  

Still can't shake that eerie feeling KSU is going to still get screwed somehow?  

Tired of seeing a freshman with one memorable win under his belt get more media attention from ESPN in two weeks than Klein has gotten in two years?

Well, put all that misplaced anger aside for a second and read this on the state of expansion and how it directly affects perception, schedule, and rankings (by Jon Morse @ Bring on the Cats).  If this doesn't get you fired up that the Big XII just staying at 10 teams could possible severely hurt us going forward, I'm not sure what else will (maybe another article on Johnny Football, the new Heisman frontrunner?)

This was a fantastic read.
It's not that the SEC is overrated. 
It's that the Big 12 structure absolutely begs for the Big 12 to be underrated. Bob Bowlsby, DeLoss Dodds... you need to address this right now. 
It doesn't even actually matter who the four teams you get are, although obviously you shouldn't be stupid about it. But the Big 12 must join the party and get to 14, or we're going to be left behind. 
Get to work.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey, we made The League last week:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's some Twitter chatter on the Heisman race:





-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joshua Kinder nails this Heisman article for The Manhattan Mercury:
Manziel, or Johnny Football, is a one-hit wonder — his team’s win over Alabama. 
I’ve never seen one player get so much mileage from a single win. Sure, the season numbers are there, but he did it against a top-heavy SEC. His best games were against the league’s bottom feeders and a pair of FCS teams, while completely disappearing in losses to Florida and LSU. 
Against three teams ranked in the BCS Top 25, Manziel has averaged 294 yards of offense with just three touchdowns and three interceptions. Against nine unranked opponents, Manziel is averaging 413 yards per game with 40 touchdowns and five interceptions. Enough said right?
But there’s more to Manziel than just great games against bad teams and his deceiving SEC-record 4,600 total yards of offense this season.  There’s that arrest record as well. 
If Manziel gets credit for the SEC record, then he should also take credit for his other record, the one stemming from a bar fight this last June when he was arrested for disorderly conduct, failure to identify and for using a fake ID. 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------