Monday, October 29, 2012

The BCS Is Like A Box Of ____

The dream season continues.

I won't spend a lot of energy going over the Tech game because I want to spend (waste) some time looking at the BCS and breaking that down a bit.  I've never really studied it that closely and I'm guessing you haven't either.  Has anyone?

Sure, I'd like to go on and on ranting to all the national media writers who were predicting this was the week the house of cards would fall, or how Oregon will eventually overtake KSU @ #2, or why KSU should be left out of the national title game, etc. ... But we here at the Koolaid are bigger than that (no we're not -- Joseph Goodman's email is jgoodman@miamiherald.com if you want to write him and I know you do. Oh, and his twitter handle is @miamiheraldheat).

It's time to focus on what we CAN control, and that's crushing our opponents will to live, somewhere around 50-20, the rest of the way out.  (Should they do that, a friend of mine will have won a bet, and a full blog post all to himself come the end of the season.  THAT should be entertaining.)

Texas Tech brought what we all expected, which was a very difficult to stop, precision timed, high-octane aerial attack with a little bit of rushing sprinkled about.  They came out firing on all cylinders, scored first, and within a few minutes seemingly had the Cats on the ropes 10-3.

Of course by then, Snyder and Klein had already swept their defense for weaknesses several times over, shared notes, and proceeded to drop the hammer on the hapless (conference leading) Red Raiders defense in the 3rd and 4th quarters.  The Lynch Mob continued their stellar play and eventually drove the sputtering (conference leading) Texas Tech offense into the proverbial ground.


Don't remember how it went down?  Here's a great little running update stream of consciousness from the Bleacher Report with photos of the game one highlight at a time (and tweets worked in for good measure):

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This photo blurs out the Tech cheerleaders to the left of us that (somebody told me)
literally never stopped dancing to whatever music was in their head the entire game.
Seriously, never stopped.  So I'm told.
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ESPN with the announcement of KSU #2 in the BCS.
Rece, Jesse and David discuss the BCS and KSU @ #2 through perfectly bleached clinched teeth.
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You're probably asking yourself ... why does Alabama just automatically get to be #1? Don't they need to be under the same scrutiny KState, Oregon, and ND are? I've thought about this a lot, and in a word, no. No they don't. Until someone proves otherwise, the returning champion returning that much NFL talent, playmakers, and defense gets to stay at #1 until someone beats them. There is no reason not to have them there.

If they run the table in the SEC, even with missing some of the key teams in the conference, they still deserve it. If the returning champion was say, Boise State, then yes, I think you'd look at this a lot differently. But the fact that Alabama won the national title by crushing LSU last year in the title game and has so far moved fairly easily through their schedule would tell me they are still a legitimate #1. And they are still #1 in the voters eyes (even if they are #3 in the computer polls ... see below).

Here's how their resume stacks up to ours. Yes, I know. Ours is slightly more impressive to date. But Alabama is the least of our worries.

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With the overwhelming success of Stats Overload from last week, it would makes sense to make this a weekly ongoing feature.  And with the BCS being what it is, perhaps there's never been a better time to dive into the numbers.  Now, you may not care about this stuff and prefer to just play the games and "see what happens", but I get paid to break this stuff down* and I'd hate to be accused of slacking on the job.

For starters, note the obvious below: KSU is dominating the computer polls right now. Unfortunately, the computers make up just 1/3 of the BCS ... the remaining 1/3 is the Harris Poll, and 1/3 USA Today Poll, both dominated by Oregon.

If your eyes have glazed over looking at this it's because you don't like KSU Football enough.
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Let's start with the Harris Poll.

It's pretty easy to understand -- it's simply 115 "experts" (113 of whom have no idea where Manhattan is or know who the Kansas State Jayhawks are) who probably didn't watch our game that week.  So yes, it's flawed based on human error, regional and conference bias, emotion, and media (ESPN) influence.

That is of course unless they move KSU to #2 instead of #3.  It would then serve as one of the most accurate polls available.
Poll Methodology and Process
The 2012 Harris Interactive College Football Poll is comprised of 115 panelists and includes former coaches, players, administrators and current and former media.
 
Panelists are randomly drawn by Harris Interactive from among more than 300 nominations supplied by the 11 Football Bowl Subdivision (formerly Division I-A) conferences and independent institutions. The panel meets Harris Interactive criteria for sample design and is a statistically reliable representation of all 11 conferences and independent institutions.
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Next up, the Anderson + Hestor Poll.

What's not to like about this poll?  It currently has KSU at #1 based on a very strong Schedule Rank of #16 and a 3-0 record vs. Top 25 teams.  They also list the Big XII as the toughest conference.  And, after reading what makes them unique ... isn't this exactly how we should be ranking teams in the first place?
The Anderson & Hester Rankings are distinct in four ways:

1. Unlike the polls, these rankings do not reward teams for running up scores. Teams are rewarded for beating quality opponents, which is the object of the game. Posting large margins of victory, which is not the object of the game, is not considered.

2. Unlike the polls, these rankings do not prejudge teams. These rankings first appear after the season's fifth week, and each team's ranking reflects its actual accomplishments — on the field, to date — not its perceived potential.

3. These rankings compute the most accurate strength of schedule ratings. Each team's opponents and opponents' opponents are judged not only by their won-lost records but also, uniquely, by their conferences' strength (see #4).

4. These rankings provide the most accurate conference ratings. Each conference is rated according to its non-conference won-lost record and the difficulty of its non-conference schedule.
Florida's schedule rank is ridiculous.  Thankfully they lost and it doesn't matter.
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Next up, our favorite mathematician around, Jeff Sagarin.  Jeff's been doing this for a long time (almost 30 years), and he historically loves Kansas State.  Why?  Because his formulas cut through all the bs and ranks teams based purely on something called ELO-CHESS.  It's fascinatingly complicated, but this metric, for whatever reason, is the only component in his formula the BCS looks at.  As you can see, this measuring stick has the Cats at #1 as well. 
If you can explain this I'll give you a Homecoming button I got at the tailgate Saturday.
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Wolfe Ratings Top 50 are maddingly difficult to figure out.  I'm not going to waste any more time trying to understand it (I've already written about them once this year anyway), but suffice to say he loves KSU and hates Oregon.  All the proof I need the man is a genius.  

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The Massey Ratings seem simple enough:
  • Originally designed to comply with the Bowl Championship Series request that margin of victory not be considered by the rating model.
  • "Binary Censored Score" - the observed outcome is win or lose, and the score is irrelevant.
  • The ratings are based on win-loss outcomes relative to schedule difficulty.
  • Margin of victory is not used, and ratings don't reflect point differentials.
  • There is no preseason bias; all teams begin at zero.
  • Early season ratings will fluctuate significantly until a sufficient number of games have been played.
  • Teams that are not connected via the schedule graph are rated as isolated groups.


I just can't see how he determines SOS, which is the last column. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next few weeks.  I like the fact Oregon is so low at 45.  Don't like to see ND so high at 7.
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Mr. Billingsley is very very proud of his system.  So much so, he wrote an entire essay on it here. I won't attempt to break it down completely because I don't get paid THAT much, but if you're really that interested you can read all you want about his philosophy on college football.

We are 12 points ahead of Oregon (genius), only two points behind ND and Alabama.

The first thing I want to say is that my ranking system is not “better” than any other computer system in the BCS. It is certainly unique in its design, and I’m proud to say that it is very widely accepted and praised. ESPN used my computer rankings in their “College Football Encyclopedia” listing the results right next to the AP and Coaches Polls as “official” National Champions, but that doesn’t make the system itself any better than many you will find. 

I have tons of respect for my BCS counterparts; Jeff Sagarin, Jeff Anderson, Chris Hester, Wes Colley, Kenneth Massey, and Peter Wolfe who are all light years ahead of my mathematical skills. But my system is not about mathematical algorithms. It’s about rules created to compliment a common sense human response to a football game. The BCS computer pollsters come from different perspectives, and we all believe strongly in our positions, but we all have a healthy respect for one another. I would argue their right to stand up for their position as much as I would my own. I’m proud to call them my friends. We all have stories to tell, this just happens to be mine.

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The Colley Matrix.  I also covered this a bit last week, but it's probably the one poll that I think approaches this the most holistically.  Look at the matrix below and how they track Quality Wins.  The wins are ranked 1-40, and they use a Matrix to determine who those wins belong to.  For example, ND currently owns the best Quality Win with a win over #10 Stanford, while KSU owns Quality Wins #3, #7, #9, and #10.  Oregon owns one QW in the Top 10 coming in at #5 with their win over Arizona (currently sitting at #16).

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All that being said, we're still on track to make a National Title appearance, despite all the media uproar.  It's their job to create the chaos and make a story, and of course no one wants to proclaim the race over ALREADY.  Without the "controversy" and debates, there's nothing left to write about so that's why you're going to see a lot of media outlets proclaiming Oregon will catch KSU eventually and why ND stands to get the invite because of style points.  That's what sells papers and #premiumcontent, not handing the Heisman, National Title, and Coach of the Year over to KSU with 40% of the season remaining.

Either way, The Bleacher Report has seen enough.


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I will try and do the OSU vs. KSU schedule breakdowns in greater detail tomorrow night and get into some pregame hype and current statistical updates on Wednesday. 

I'll leave you with this photo of the "KStater" donut I had prior to our tailgate Saturday.  If you haven't been to Varsity Donuts yet in Aggieville, I highly encourage it. Fantastic donuts, atmosphere, coffee, and a line out the door on Game Day.  You can buy a $5 Footall + Donuts T-shirt and give it to loved ones for Christmas and look like a KSU gift-giving hero. 


* - I don't get paid anything but compliments for this site.  And maybe donuts someday.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Road Trip

The bags are packed.  Plans are set.  The weekend officially starts in 12 hours as we head to Manhattan for what some are calling the Battle of the Heisman Frontrunners.

Ok, no one is calling it that.  But, somehow Seth "Misfit Toy" Doege (you'll get that later) has worked his way up to 8th in the Heisman race primarily because there just isn't that much to choose from once you get past Klein.  I am also looking for some white electrical tape to make the appropriate modifications to my Bishop jersey in the following manner:


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This KSU uniform was probably edited in Photoshop, but I found this from Javonta Boyd posted today on Twitter.  I asked him where he got it and he didn't respond back which leads me to believe he was either a) was studying film, b) focusing on the defensive playbook c) working on classwork, or d) rewatching the WV game as I've done three times now.  

Black and purple together is intimidating.
 The old school Willie is also terrifying.  And I mean that in a please let's not
consider ever going back to that logo again kind of terrifying.
We will likely have to wait two years until Snyder retires to see any uniform changes come to fruition, but at least there's potential.  Unless the next head coach is Sean Snyder.  

And then of course nothing will change.
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This is an amazing 146 image library of Collin Klein through the years at KSU.  
This photo really is deserving of a caption contest.
I am too tired to think of one so just imagine I said something funny here.
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All right, enough is enough.  

I'm not sure I've ever consumed as much Kansas State information in one week as I have starting at the West Virginia kickoff up to this point. Are you tired of reading about it? Of course you aren't. So let's finish Week 8 up strong with a final prediction ...  i.e. a big win on Saturday.

We are living in incredible times.  This KSU era is so dramatically rare, so historically unprecedented, so amazingly special, someday soon we will look back and realize how blessed we were to be living a dream season that some college football fans will never have an opportunity to experience.  A season in which KSU has the potential to pull the ultimate college football tri-fecta:  The Heisman, The Coach of the Year, The Title.

We are witnessing the evolution of perhaps the greatest single player in the history of the program.  A player that transcends and reshapes the very standard of which all players, and certainly all future quarterbacks, will be held to.  A man who by simply improving every day, from his first pass in 2010 to leading his team in the national title hunt, just refuses to lose.  There are no equals in college football this season, and there are no equals in Kansas State history.

We are creating memories, you and I.  Memories that will burn deep, good and bad, forever, regarding this season.  I am planning to soak in every minute of this historic weekend.  Every high five, every play, every moment of purple-induced euphoria.  These are snapshots that will stand the test of the time and serve as a defining 36-hours for all K-State fans attending the game. 

We know the Wildcats are primed and ready to face what the media has said is the most balanced team left on the KSU schedule.  Snyder, Brown, and Klein will make sure of that.  Unfortunately for Tech, all of their balance won't be enough.  The Wildcats have forged their place among the Top 5 for 2012 and are on crash course for the national title.  No pre-game hype, no media members and opposing fans predictions of a Tech upset, no single play will define the outcome of this game. Klein has now proven over 20 games in some of the most hostile venues in the country, he is a leader that will never quit. He is in full command of the KSU offense and is the centerpiece of the perfect Bill Snyder coached football team.  

Saturday will be just another step for a team on a single-minded mission:  prepare, execute, win, refocus.  If we simply follow that formula for the next five games, the memories are only just beginning.

See you there.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

8-0 Awaits

All Snyder would need to do before they run out on the field Saturday is put this first video on for 8 minutes and then sit back and watch the Cats in a lathered fury scream out of the tunnel and mercilessly tear Tech to shreds.

I feel like going out and tearing something to shreds myself.  Right after I finish this bowl of Lucky Charms.  

And then I am definitely going to find something to mercilessly destroy. 


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I found this just, you know, randomly searching Youtube as I've been known to do from time to time (alot) to find random KSU stuff.  I search YouTube so you don't have to.  See, membership really does have it's benefits.  And this WV fan knows all the KSU players, nicknames, all of it. Unbelievable.

The beat down was so utterly complete, he basically spends the first minute just flat out complimenting the Cats.  I like this guy.  And you will, too.


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No caption required when I get this in my email while at work.
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 Panthor has come out from hiding in my garage attic for this football season
to cheer Klein on for the #Heisman.
Panthor provided some additional inspiration for this time consuming graphic I made in Paint.
#Ishouldchargeforsubscribingtothissite
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Kirk Herbstreit has been incredibly favorable to the Cats this season.  Probably because of sites like this that make He-Man references.  But if you missed Mike and Mike on ESPN radio this morning, this is worth a listen to hear Kirk continue his campaign of purple positivity this season.  

Regarding the Heisman, "I think there's Collin Klein, and then there's everyone else.  You position yourself in September and October for the Heisman, and you win in November."
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If you can stomach it, here's a column in the LA Times about this season possibly being our Redemption for 1998.
He was criticized in 1998 for trying to schedule his way to the top. Kansas State's nonconference ledger looked more like a series of train stops: Indiana State, Northern Illinois and Louisiana Monroe. 
The title-run premise was built on defeating post-Tom Osborne Nebraska, in Manhattan, on Nov. 14. And Kansas State did. 
This year's schedule strength has already blown 1998's away, yet a line-item veto move by Snyder months ago may prove brilliant. 
Prince, the coach Snyder replaced, had included Miami and Oregon on the nonconference schedule. Snyder almost fainted.
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One more post coming tomorrow night before the Biggest Game of the Season ... the next one ... then it's off to Manhattan!

3.5 Days and Counting

A big shout out to Bring on the Cats for leading off their 10.23.12 K-State slate with a link back to last nights post and the Texas Tech breakdown. That single link drove over 200 unique page views to the site this morning alone and continues to grow the Koolaid readership.

There is so much content out there it's fairly hard to keep track of it all and stay ahead of the wave of KSU related information.  I do appreciate everyone's support in sending links or articles in and I'll try my best to post as much of them as I can if they meet the "entertainment" test.  Usually that means I try to make sure most of what gets posted has new or interesting information in it that you can't find somewhere else.  

So, to that end, please don't be upset if I don't use something you send in.  Keep 'em coming.
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A lot of you won't like the music set to this West Virginia highlight package, but I do because I like techno music. Except it's not really techno, it's dubstep.

And if you don't know what that is, it just means you're older than 26.


You have to admit, this XLarge format for images I've moved to does look pretty good.
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Here is a follow-up to a highlight package (Optimus Klein Issue #1) that was released earlier this year. Optimus Klein Issue #2 is produced with great transitions, a very original comic-book interface, and a sweeping soundtrack.

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Stan Weber honestly doesn't get interviewed enough.

He should be quoted in just about any and all articles regarding KSU.  He is of course the foremost expert on all things purple, but for whatever reason he's not sought out as much as he should.

So when you find an article that has him quoted, you better listen up.  Here he breaks down Klein's improvement in 2012 in an article written by K. Robinett for the Wichita Eagle -- posted in a Lexington Kentucky paper.  Must have been a slow news day not reporting on 5-star basketball players verballing to UK.
"Collin is unique," Weber said. "He's the first player I've ever seen that reads blocking schemes as well as he does coverage. He understands where blockers are coming from, what the timing is and where the defense is going. It's amazing. He is in complete control out there."
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You know the guy at goEMAW who does all those crazy play and set breakdowns, @ksu_FAN?  Well, he's not only smart as hell, but he has an artistic side to him as well.

What is he doing when he isn't breaking down game film?  He's designing Heisman logos, of course.  Should this come to fruition, these designs are all capable of making him a small fortune in T-Shirt sales:


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The Salute continues their podcast and the guys discuss the big win @ West Virginia.  Great discussion on all the national hype, becoming America's favorite story, the big plays vs. WV, and a lot more.

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A great story on Chris Harper, the Oregon game that Snyder canceled, and the current race between Oregon and KSU from Ken Corbitt in the Topeka Capital-Journal..
The change in schools was a big change in style of play for Harper. 
“Oregon is the program for the modern age,” he said. “They have the out-of-the-world, alien-looking uniforms. They have the spread offense, throw-it-around no-huddle and get a play off in a second. 
“I wouldn't say we're a throwback team; we're a balanced team. We have stuff from back when coach (Bill) Snyder and Joe Paterno first got into coaching. We can do both things, and that's what sets us apart.”
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We all know Gus Johnson by now.

He worked his way into our KSU-consciousness in 2010 with the NCAA Sweet 16 call of KSU vs. Xavier and the epic battle between Jacob Pullen and Crawford/Holloway.

And by now you know he loves calling football (he did KSU's wins over OU and WV) with just as much flair and enthusiasm, leading the way for Fox as one of their top broadcasters.

And by now you probably know, he's coming to Manhattan this weekend.  The only negative?  I'll be at the game, not listening to the call on TV.
“They’re still rugged, they’re still incredibly disciplined and they don’t beat themselves,” he said, when comparing the two teams. 
“They have a quarterback that is playing lights-out in Collin Klein. Their running back John Hubert is playing like an All-American candidate as well. And Arthur Brown may be the best defender in the nation, as least one of them. 
“They take on the personality of their head coach. Coach (Bill) Snyder is a legend and he’s still on top of his game." 
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Klein now owns all 15 first place votes.  ALL of them.  Geno fell to SIXTH after playing KSU.
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Here are NCAA's top 10 Plays and/or Players of Week 8. And of course, who else? Klein makes it to the top of yet another list.

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And here you thought the KState Mask was ... just the KSTATE Mask.  But, as you can see, he's going national with his services and helping out the local community as well as cheering on the Cats.

I'll post the Tech video this week as soon as it's out.


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Here's an absolutely great read from the Bleacher Report.  "If Bill Snyder Can Do This In Kansas, What's Your Team's Excuse?"

Scout.com has been ranking recruiting classes and prospects since 2002, but Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder probably never noticed that because he's never reeled in a No. 1 recruiting class. 
Snyder hasn't sniffed at a Top 10 class either. Or Top 20. Or Top 30. Or, believe it or not, a Top 40. In fact, the best recruiting class Snyder ever had, according to Scout, was in 2002 when the Wildcats' class was ranked No. 42.
Snyder's 2009's class, by the way, is on the same page as UTEP, Eastern Michigan and Idaho's classes. Even worse, you have to flip through five pages of class rankings to even find that 112th-ranked class.
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Finally, here's my friend Brent's perspective from his road trip to Morgantown last week as he and his wife Susan headed east to the rugged hills of West Virginia --
Friday: 
Our journey began in Wichita on Friday with a smattering of purple at the airport. Downplayed anxiety on the faces of fans spending a little hard earned cash to get another first hand look at our collective dream personified. 
In DFW, there is more purple, and a long layover and a few drinks and the mood lightens and doubt lessens. About that time I get a few texts suggesting that more than a few times opposing fans have left Morgantown battered and bruised. We double our resolve and board the flight to Pittsburgh and pass out.
Pittsburgh. Lovely little postcard of a sports town in autumn. Stayed in a nice place downtown, stuck between Heinz Field and PNC Park. We ate decent (not great) food at Bettis' and consumed a few more Yuenglings which were delicious. Not as much purple as I'd like to see. I welcomed sleep with open arms.

Gameday:


Free breakfast after a run with Susan by the Monongahela. South to Morgantown. I had a good feeling when Susan wanted more Beastie Boys. Arriving in Morgantown we knew we were in a hostile environment. There are WVU signs and colors EVERYWHERE. We were honked at and endured several insults that I would've been proud of when I was 20 and hammered.

Lunch came and went with several drinks, great pizza and very polite non-students welcoming us. At that point time speeds up at a little place called Fat Daddy's.

Fat Daddy's...A sea of purple. K State gameday on the stage and $2 Yuengling draws. I had 47. Waitresses sporting skintight shorts rather than pants. Chaos ensues. Ohio State eeks one out to the dismay of the crowd as does Notre Dame. Susan loses a game of Big Buck Hunter and I try to convince her to take a picture of me with the cute 21 year old bar waitress. No photo available.

At 4pm our ride picks us up and we head back to their house to navigate the treacherous hills to the stadium on foot supplied with enough beverages to sustain a crew of sailors for a week. More catcalls along the way regarding my choice of apparel. Varsity is the name of the bar adjacent to the stadium parking lot...it was full so we went to a WVU tailgate.

The tailgate was hosted by grad students with lots of expendable cash and marginal loyalty. I was apprehensive about our chances but everyone I talked to thought we would destroy the 'Eers.

"You're too well coached, and too disciplined,"

"We can't touch your QB,"

"Wait until you see our secondary,"

Drunk on the compliments and buzzed on the free Yuengling we make our way to the stadium. I think it seats only 8,000 more than ours, but this place seemed huge, and loud.  Really loud. They were ready. Well, the fans were anyway.

We take our places amoungst WVU fans in a yellow section. They alternate navy and yellow based on sections. Our cohorts were mostly alumni and mostly sober. Lots of questions about our experience to that point and how tall my wife is. Opening kickoff sees Tremaine get a nice return and our drive stalls but we salvage a field goal.

"They only got three!" was almost chanted in unison around us and soon that would be revealed as the second best outcome of the night for the WVU defense.

Arthur Brown crushes the ensuing drive on fourth down and it becomes a clinic. All around us people are muttering about their defense. Boos are heard early in the second quarter and Klein seems to get about four-fold bigger standing in the pocket and picking his targets. He could've read the entire Manhattan Mercury prior to tossing the ball, he had that much time. I can't help but cheer, and cheer loudly, and nobody evens looks at me.

Haltime and the game is over. I walk out to the concession area to get 2 beers and am congratulated by most fans I pass. They are clapping me on the shoulder and saying what a great team and coach we have and how they appreciate the brand of football we play. I have never acted so gracious when I have been on that side. As I returned to my seat, everyone was gone. Headed for the hills. They had seen what they were afraid of happen at their home field. They could not protect their stadium from the purple wave. Our team simply overtook them like a windstorm through a wheat field. They were awestruck and silent and could not watch the carnage any longer.

HCBS sees Kleins numbers have surely gotten him national praise and pulls him from the game before any cheap shot can deter his run for glory. I actually don't think any Mountaineer would've taken a shot or had been successful against Optimus. Sams runs out the clock and "K S U" rings true through the stadium of our adversaries.

On the way from the stadium, I met and shook hands with Bob Huggins.

"Thanks for resurrecting our program coach."

"Your welcome ... sorry Frank didn't work out."
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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Stats Overload

On the road the past few days recruiting at KSU, I had some time on my hands and decided what we really needed is a statistical breakdown of both Tech and Kansas State to determine the real tale of the tape for what we can expect on Saturday (besides a big KSU win, of course).

Since both teams have played nearly the exact same schedule to date, (swapping out TCU and kansas), the comparison of the two teams against the teams they've played, where they played them, and the overall outcome offers a nice apples to apples comparison of the two squads year-to-date.

This certainly allows for a little objectivity looking through a purple colored haze of purple passion, but I think even a casual college football fan with no vested rooting interest in the games would agree with the column on the right where I assigned the advantage for that particular matchup.

I ranked each of Tech's games against it's closest KSU counterpart, and as I mentioned before, the only truly glaring difference in the two schedules is Tech played TCU (bad), and KSU's comparable is Kansas (worse).

Yes I made this and colored coded it for you.  
So, what does the magic chart tells us?  It tells us KSU's 7-0 is ultimately a better record than Tech's 6-1.  Obvious, to be sure, but how MUCH better?

Looking at the breakdown, it's clear to see that KSU is carrying a greater value for their wins vs. the value that Tech is getting for theirs. Four of the 7 games favor Kansas State, one favors Tech (barely).
  • KSU holds the advantage (receives more value) in Week 2 for their win over Miami than Tech did in beating Texas State.  The ACC > WAC and Miami's athletes are going to win a footrace over Texas State's ... every time.  Name recognition and conference affiliation alone scores this one in the Cats favor.
  • KSU holds a huge advantage when beating OU on the road vs. losing to them at home (which Tech did).  This is the most glaring difference in the two schedule breakdowns.  This is a monumental win on the Cats resume obviously, and rather than big KSU, it should read HUGE KSU.  This is the defining game and opponent that obviously separates the two teams to this point in time.
  • KSU holds an advantage over crushing Kansas (at home), while it took Tech 3 OT's to eventually put away TCU.  Note TCU is 7th in total offense, Kansas is 9th. Sure, you can argue that this should actually be a Tech advantage because TCU is better than Kansas, but I'm not sure how MUCH better.  Also, Tech gave up 516 yards of offense and 53 points to TCU ... to a freshman QB.  They also had 90 yards in penalties.  Overall, KSU's dominating win over a lesser opponent is a better win over Tech barely scrapping by TCU (in my humble, albeit slightly biased KSU opinion). Reviewing the numbers, Tech's defense played awful and allowed TCU to hang around and make a game of one that probably shouldn't of been that close.
  • Finally, KSU scores the advantage beating WV on the road vs. getting them at home. Yes, I know Tech did it first and provided a "blueprint", but playing them in Morgantown is exponentially more difficult than playing them in the comfy confines of Lubbock with a howling wind knocking all of Geno's passes down for you and his OL tipping the Tech defense whether it was pass or run.  Snyder would have had the same blueprint if WV had won that game and Tech didn't unlock some secret to beating WV. They just happened to be the ones to take advantage of their swiss cheese secondary first.
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So I also broke down our comparative rankings in the conference for the top 17 categories that are currently tracked.  You'll find even more KSU advantages -- with again, basically playing the same overall schedule.

Any differential between the two squads of 4 or higher (that means four BigXII teams separate them in the standings) scored a big advantage, 3 scored a slight advantage, and if it was 2 or less I basically called it even.

KSU registers statistical advantages in 9 categories against only 4 for Tech.  Not surprisingly, the most glaring ones for both team include the obvious difference in offensive styles:  they pass and don't run, we run and only pass when we really have to.

But, KSU also holds big advantages over Punt Returns, TO Margin, Sacks, and KO returns.  Statistically these might not be as important, but they are important when determining the outcome of a tight, closely fought game.  These are areas where field position is ultimately won, and where the Cats ultimately excel at.

You can see we also hold slight advantages in Scoring Defense, Pass Efficiency (Klein is 2nd in the country behind Alabama), Tackles For Loss, and Sacks Allowed.

These statistics are also important when compared to the relative higher value of our current schedule resume and wins (see above).
This is not subjective blog analysis, this is #premiumcontent.
Yes, Tech holds obvious advantages in Passing Offense and Total Offense, but it is surprising their Defense is also rated slightly better than ours, as well as their Pass Efficiency Defense.  They just don't hold any cards with any of the true game changing X-Factors.  They also don't hold any kind of advantage in Coaching (Snyder is the best coach in the country), or Intangibles (KSU playing at home, focused, determined, unstoppable).
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Ah, but I see you're the type that needs even more proof.  

Well, here are the BCS computer breakdowns of the two schools.  Ironically, the one metric we are ranked lowest in, the Colley Matrix Top 50, Tech is of course ranked the highest.  I've never studied this, but you can actually put in whatever teams you want into the forms and create your own statistical comparison.

It just so happens I did that for you for the top 5 teams in the BCS:


Note it ranks every team in the country and then shows you what the opponents ave. rank is and how that stacks up against the SOS. Beating Tech will add another Top 25 win, increase our opponents winning percentage to 48%, and hopefully continue to better our SOS rank.

Of course this is just one poll out of the 7 used in the BCS, but it is pretty telling how these teams actually get ranked and the metrics they use.  It's hard not to obsess about these numbers, but it's likely I will for the rest of the season.  

Their average across all the rankings is 12.4, ours is a blistering 3.1.  

 
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And finally, Brad Edwards w/ESPN tells it right: KSU and the top teams in the country are doing it on the ground, not in the air.  Alabama comes in with the highest ranked Passing Offense in the Top 5 ... at #75.


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Front page of ESPN right now.  Whoever said ESPN doesn't like us? (I did.)
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More to come this week so stay tuned.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Frontrunners

That wasn't supposed to be that easy.

Maybe the most dominating performance over a ranked team since our 2003 win over OU, this 55-14 win was unimaginable just a few hours ago.  We all predicted a close, hard fought game.  A battle of two men seeking to prove the nation they belong in the Heisman and National Title conversation.  A war between the grinding, clock controlling offense of the Wildcats vs. the blitzkrieging aerial showcase with the nation's most high flying trio.


What we got was that KState has proven they belong in the discussion as one of the nation's most elite teams.  Did you know KSU has more wins over Top 25 teams on the road (3), than ND, Florida, Oregon, and Alabama combined (2)?  That folks, is simply incredible to consider. 

Suddenly, Texas Tech @ home next week is now the most important game on the schedule.  Is that because it's the next one?  "By and large, it would appear so, yes." (Say that in your best Snyder voice).

Yes, the mighty cats (not little anymore, mind you) crushing the Mountaineers with a flick of a Collin Klein 20-yard TD strike set up their biggest (?) challenge of the season next week in Manhattan.  The road to the the Big XII title rests in the hands of Klein and Co., and a win on Saturday will go a long, long way in clinching it. 

It would allow KSU to take a loss somewhere within it's last four remaining games (not likely) and still win the conference.  Baylor, TCU, OSU, and Texas.  NOT that we're saying it will happen, but it is nice to hold a few tie-breakers in your back pocket as OU will likely continue to steamroll the BigXII.  

But never mind the conference.   There are bigger things coming for this team.  And it all starts next week. 
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Here is David Ubben's interview with Klein after the game.  You don't have to watch it to know Klein's answers, obviously.  In fact, you could watch it on mute and pretty much get it. 

Here he is talking with Harper.
And here's the post-game wrap up.
Klein led the way with a career-high seven touchdowns and 323 passing yards, scoring four times on the ground and throwing three touchdowns to just two incompletions on 21 attempts. He was slinging it well enough to lead Chris Harper to start calling his quarterback, "John" late in the game.
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The Kansas City star wasted no time posting about the big win.
No team in the country owns a better victory this season than Kansas State’s 24-19 Norman conquest, and the stronger Oklahoma becomes, the more the Wildcats are lifted.
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#redpants